As many of you will already know, the Premier League is one of my ‘go to’ leagues for accumulator betting. It’s been a league that I have been surrounded by since I was just a nipper and, as the majority of you guys are from the UK, one that most will likely be familiar with.
I wanted to create this article to show you what to look out for within the Premier League in terms of accumulator betting. This will include markets, teams, statistics and more.
I also wanted to make it appealable to those of you who may not be as familiar with the Premier League – from a betting perspective at least- and highlight what you need to look out for.
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My go to bookmaker for betting on the Premier League is always bet365. I think they cover it better than pretty much anyone in the industry and the range of markets that are on offer is actually quite staggering.
If I’m being totally honest with you pretty much all the major bookmakers out there will have a good coverage of the Premier League. Certainly all the bookmakers on What Acca. But if you are looking for the best, then for me, bet365 should be your go to.
Leave your team at the door
You’ll probably be aware that I am indeed a big Newcastle United (unfortunately). And what usually happens is that in my blind optimism as a fan, I always think they have a better chance than they most likely do in any given game.
For example, there was an away game last season where they played West Ham and were priced roughly around 3.50 to win the game. I thought that seemed like a really good price and I went to add them into my acca.
After consulting with friends and other tipsters, as I usually do before placing, not one out of about 10 had agreed with my decision. They highlighted the team’s poor league form at the time and also their terrible track record in London to boot.
I decided to remain with my initial thoughts and added them to my acca. They lost, 1-0. They were also the only team from my 5-team acca to let me down that day and do me out a few hundred quid.
These things certainly do ‘happen’ in the industry, but after sitting down and discussing this with friends they all concluded I’d put them in through tinted glasses for Newcastle. Supporting the team is always going to have some sort of bias, no matter who you are and this in turn affects your decision to make calculated betting decision.
The moral of the story is simple; don’t back your own team! They may seem good value, but it’s likely that you’re always going to struggle to make an impartial decision when it comes to betting on your own team.
Which teams to pick?
The Premier League is one of the most competitive leagues in the world and it’s not uncommon to see a top four team go out and get beat from a bottom four team. This makes betting tricky, but it always adds value.
I like to have my selections priced around the 1.70 and upwards mark, with any prices below that being ruled out due to lack of value. This means that picking the likes of Chelsea, Man City, Man United and Arsenal to win at home against any one but a top four team, is usually out of the question due to price.
I tend to flip this a little with my picks and look to try and get these guys in away from home, where they are likely still going to be the better team out of the two, but offer that little bit more value.
For example, Arsenal played West Ham last season on 28th December and were priced at 2.02 to win the game away from home. Arsenal was always going to be a much stronger team than West Ham and seemed a really strong price to beat them. Arsenal won the game 2-1.
The returning fixture at the Emirates prices Arsenal at just 1.34 to win the game. For me, this offers next to no value, even if you are putting multiple games of this price range in your acca. Arsenal won the game 3-0.
What I’m really trying to highlight here is the value of the bigger teams playing away from home. On paper they are going to be better than their lower league opponents more often than not, and even with the fact that teams get the home advantage, getting teams such as Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Man United, Man City and even Spurs priced anywhere around even money away from home are games that you should be looking long and hard at.
Markets to bet on
If you follow my betting tips that I send out to my mailing list (subscribe below) you will see that I concentrate on two markets; Win-Draw-Win and over/under 2.5 goals.
In all honesty, there are boatloads more that I should really start to open up to for everyday betting, and whilst I don’t strictly stick to these markets, they make up about 80% of my football accumulators.
The win-draw-win market is my most popular selection and that’s basically because I like to keep things as simple as possible when it comes to accumulator betting. The research I put in to each accumulator bet could literally take hours every day and it’s not something that I want to blasé about when it comes to investing my hard-earned cash.
Using this market means that I can access information to form these types of bets readily and from a number of different sources. I speak more about how I form my accumulators in this article.
The over/under 2.5 goals market was originally used more as a back up market to bet on when I couldn’t see many W-D-W games that I wanted to bet on. But, I quickly found out that this market could be a goldmine in its own right.
The Premier League is one of the most exciting leagues in the world when it comes to the amount of goals per game that are involved. In fact, in the 2013-14 only the Bundesliga averaged more goals (3.13) per game than the Premier League (2.77) out of Europe’s major footballing leagues.
Again, I’m not going to go into how I make these decisions with this article, but if you want to find out more then you can check out my guide to winning over/under 2.5 goal accumulators.
Both Teams To Score info and Stats
The BTTS market is something that’s also been catching my eye over the last few seasons and I thought that this deserves it’s own section.
First, I want to make a disclaimer. The Premier League has one of the lowest BTTS percentages in the whole of Europe, including cup competitions. Stats taken from the 2013/14 season show that only the Europa League has a lower BTTS percentage than the Premier League.
But, don’t forget that with most bookmakers, you can choose either BTTS yes or BTTS no, so just because the percentage is low, doesn’t mean it can’t still be profitable.
It’s important to look out for teams that are going to yield positive results for your BTTS selections. For the purpose of this article, we will be looking at ‘BTTS yes’ results.
As you can see from the tables, last season the teams to look out for were Arsenal, Man United, Crystal Palace, QPR and Tottenham. These are the teams that had the highest percentage of games played where both teams scored at least one goal.
The table also provides you with the average odds based on their percentage. So from this you can gauge what sort of price would be a fair price for the majority of their matches. You can also see which teams you should be looking to avoid for ‘BTTS Yes’ bets, but could be very hand for ‘BTTS No’; Southampton, West Brom and Aston Villa especially!
As you can see, there’s a lot to tackle when it comes to betting on the Premier League. The amount of data that is not available for one of the biggest and best leagues in the world is phenomenal and can be slightly overwhelming to be honest.
I will finish by saying that I don’t think the Premier League always offers the best value when it comes to accumulator bets. I often tend to include many more lower league games, but that’s not to say the value isn’t out there.
If you are willing to look past the W-D-W market and open up to other markets, like I have, then the value can still be found from the Premier League.