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Matthew Glazier
Betting Expert

25 April 2024

Why Computer Generated Betting Tips Don’t Work

Have you ever wondered why computer generated betting tips don’t work?

Football punters are always in search of betting tips in order to beat the bookies and back a few winners along the way. There’s nothing like landing a touch at 20/1 or bigger.  The team at WhatAcca.com are always searching for the next accumulator bet that is going to secure a massive return.

We often scan the internet to see how our competitors are shaping up.  And it’s clear that there are many websites cobbling together tips that are generated by a computer. There are algorithms which are created and betting tips come from the historic data.  This data is relating to each club, with the computer then creating advice based on the stats.

Should You Really Trust a Computer With Tipping Advice?

There is nothing wrong with using stats when it comes to placing football bets. Indeed, the team at WhatAcca.com have access to plenty of data and we use this to conduct our research. However, the problem with a computer creating betting tips is that a computer is not a human being.

While computers are emotionless which means they will also make recommendations.  Which are “head over heart”, they also don’t observe football matches and take notes on what occurred in the game. They won’t take into account when a team has dominated their previous match and simply not taken their chances.

A computer might be able to create probabilities when it comes to each team winning their particular match.  Although they aren’t in the business of matching up this probability with the actual betting odds about a team winning. Let’s face it – it’s all about grabbing the value price each time.

Why the Eye Test is Super Valuable for Football Betting

Whether you are betting on football or playing the popular Fantasy Premier League game. It will always be helpful if you actually sit and watch football matches. Even if this just involves watching Match of the Day and catching the highlights of the Premier League games.  It’s definitely the case that you will build up a knowledge base from the eye test.

Imagine you miss all ten Premier League games for the weekend. You can see the scorelines, the players who have scored and obviously the number of goals.  Along with the number of games where both teams found the net.  Along with the games where Over 2.5 Goals would have won along with the Under 2.5 Goals matches.

However, being able to watch the full ninety minutes will provide you with a heap of insights for each team.  Not to mentioned all the football players on the pitch. The Expected Goals data can be helpful but there are different ways that this is calculated.  And it might be that you can create a conclusion which is departed from the scoreline.

Football is a low-scoring sport compared to the likes of basketball and rugby union. It means that there is more prospect of “freak” outcomes on a one-game basis.  With the leading Premier League sides capable of being overturned by the lower sides in a one-off game.  And it’s therefore important to watch games and not form kneejerk reaction based on the odd scoreline.

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                    Get to Know the Players When Watching a Football Match

                    Now this might sound seriously geeky to some people but there is plenty to be said for not only sitting down and watching the full ninety minutes.  But also making notes along the way. What formations are both teams deploying and does this change at any stage throughout the game. How many clear goal-scoring opportunities are being created?

                    It’s useful to see which players look the most likely to score for each team. While it’s also intriguing to see who takes charge when it comes to free-kicks and also the player tasked with penalty kicks. We also like to see if the full-backs push forward and whether it’s the right-sided or left-sided player getting into advanced positions.

                    There is also an ebb and flow to particular football matches. It might go something along the lines of Team A being dominant in the first twenty minutes.  Then the game levelling out and perhaps it might be Team B who come storming back towards the end of the first half. It might be the case that half-time disrupts the flow of a game and that we witness a slow start to the second half. For a deeper understanding why not examine how to place a bet the right way with the WhatAcca.com information guides.

                    While In-Play betting can be a rollercoaster ride, it’s true to say that many successful live wagering customers are able to identify certain trends and patterns in a football match before placing their online bets. It can be the case that a dominant side go a goal behind and they still represent an attractive betting proposition if they continue to create chances and be chiefly in control of possession.

                    How Do Managers Respond to What’s Happening on the Pitch?

                    If we’re betting on a particular football team to win their match.  We have to be confident that the manager is going to get things right against the next opponents. This doesn’t just come down to the correct team selection but also the formation deployed.  And you can sometimes only calculate the line-up and average player position when the whistle blows for the start of the game.

                    A strong football manager will be able to identify the areas of strength and weakness on the pitch.  While they can also make the sort of changes that will outfox the opposition manager and help the team to a positive result. Sometimes a manager will make substitutions that will add fresh energy to the team.  While it might sometimes be a tweak to the formation that helps a team over the line.

                    You might also be able to infer some information from hearing a manager during a pre-match press conference.  While many are also interviewed before the match kicks off and it’s great if you can get some pearls of wisdom that might imply what is going to happen on the pitch. After the game, you can often hear from the two managers and get an idea of how they thought the game panned out.

                    Can a Computer Respond to Team News With Betting Tips?

                    When we’re creating football accumulator betting tips at WhatAcca.com, there are lots of factors that we take into account. This includes team news where we keep tabs on the players who are and aren’t available for the upcoming match.  And we generally get data on the players the night before the game kicks off.

                    While it’s hard to provide the sort of last minute tips that come within an hour of kick-off when the confirmed lineups are made.  It’s also clear that having a strong idea of each Starting 11 is going to inform you when it comes to placing the best football bets. Unfortunately a computer isn’t going to know the ins and outs like this.

                    Therefore, while a computer might generate betting tips based on previous games. They can’t possibly know that Manchester United are going to field the same Starting 11 that helped the Red Devils win their previous encounter. It could be that a large number of players are missing through injury or suspension. 

                    It’s also the case that leading Premier League clubs are subject to rotation when it comes to various fixtures.  And it might be that a manager decides to leave star players out of a match against so-called lesser opposition. If the top scorer for a side is left out of the Starting 11, it stands to reason that this team are unlikely to score as many goals in a particular game.

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                    A Human Being Can Also Follow the Money

                    We know that the betting markets are open to fluctuation as we get closer to kick-off.  And there are often big Asian syndicates that drive the betting odds one way or another. When it gets to less than 24 hours before kick-off, it certainly helps to monitor the price changes.  And get an idea whether there has been money for a particular team or selection as the big kick-off approaches.

                    Here at WhatAcca.com, we’re never keen to create early betting tips without getting a feel for each match and the way that the betting odds are unfolding. There are often green and red arrows which indicate price movement.  And the alarm bells will be ringing if any of the teams on our shortlist are starting to drift on the market.

                    Conversely, we might make some original selections and then see the price shorten with a certain bookie.  To the extent that we don’t perceive them to be a valuable shout when it comes to putting the teams in our accumulator. We have a set of guidelines when it comes to acca picks to avoid putting selections that aren’t going to bump up the price too much.

                    Have you ever wondered What a Yankee Bet is?  Put simply it is a bet that increases your chances of winning from 4 bet selections. Whilst a Yankee bet is similar to an Accumulator is does have a few variations to it.  We recommend reviewing the Yankee Bet guide link above.  Learn more about other betting options such as Cashing Out your bet, this is another manual process to aid you.

                    Stats Simply Don’t Tell the Full Football Story

                    Lies, damned lies and statistics, so the phrase goes. This was created to go against the idea that stats can be peddled to create a weak argument.  Something that can easily be seen when a politician tries to convince the people that they are right about an issue and the numbers have been manipulated for this purpose.

                    It is clear that stats simply don’t paint the full picture and it is often better to get a more complete overview by witnessing the full ninety minutes. After all, why is it that a player completely outperforms his expected goals.  And that a team are sometimes much higher or lower than their expected points implies?

                    It’s nearly always the case that the final score doesn’t tell the full story of a match. It’s important to ignore the noise and recognise the trends that formed part of the game.  With the losing team often the one that played the best football. There might also have been certain tactics deployed by the winning side which involved managing the game along the way.

                    A lot is sometimes made of the amount of possession that a certain team had.  Although it might have been the case that a team tends to fare best when it comes to a lower amount of possession.  With some outfits better suited to pacier counter-attack.  Why not learn about how Over / Under 2.5 Goal accumulator bets work with our handy betting guides.

                    How Watching the Game Helps Future Bets

                    Whether the match you are watching is high-scoring or not, you will be able to come away with a firm idea of how both sides are playing.  And be able to carry this information with you when it comes to assessing future football coupons. Our accumulator advice generally comes from either the Full-Time Result, Over / Under 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score markets.

                    Therefore, when you are watching a game, it’s not just a case of establishing the dominant side.  But also judging the number of clear-cut chances that are being created along with whether the game is balanced where both sides are on the front foot.  Or whether there is one side that is dominant on this front.

                    People can talk about the form guide and point to a string of either W’s, D’s or L’s.  Although the most recent match is clearly the biggest barometer of form and there should always be a number of key takeaways from watching a match that should hopefully help you to create an opinion on the next one.

                    We would even say that if you’re able to watch a string of games involving a particular team.  It becomes even better to shape an opinion on what is going to happen next. Judging a side in a one-off game might give you a distorted view on how they actually play.  Especially as managers tend to weigh up the opposition each time and put out a side based on this.

                    Choose WhatAcca.com Tips Over Computer-Generated Ones

                    WhatAcca.com has real people on the ground who are watching the games on a frequent basis.  And this has led to our overall success when it comes to the creation of accumulator betting tips. We will make notes from every match we watch and then check out the latest coupon to see where the value lies.

                    A computer can never have their finger on the pulse in the same way that an expert can. With someone having to design some kind of program in the first place. We think there’s definitely a place for technology when it comes to crunching data and there are clearly tech systems in place on the bookies side for odds compilation.

                    However, a real person can see the bigger picture on a frequent basis.  And they are able to match their findings to the next available betting markets of which there are hundreds. Therefore, try to steer clear of computer-generated tips from an impersonal service who wouldn’t be able to justify their selections.

                    Matthew Glazier

                    Betting Expert
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                    Matthew Glazier is one of the biggest names in the sports betting industry, with this leading writer having twenty years experience which includes working for bet365, William Hill and betfair.

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