How to win over/under 2.5 goals accumulator bet

The over/under 2.5 goals bet is a pretty simple concept. If you are betting on the over then you are looking for 3 or more goals to be scored in the game. Conversely, if you are betting on the under then you are looking for two or less goals in the game.

The beauty of these types of bets is that the result of the match doesn’t matter, so even if the favourite doesn’t win, it doesn’t matter, as long as goals are being scored; and this is all we care about.

This article will show you exactly how I go about making my selections for winning accumulator bets for games that include the over/under 2.5 goals.

I’ll be honest in saying that 95% of my accas will include over 2.5 goals selections, but if you are looking for under bets, then the strategy can still very successfully be applied.

Best bookmakers for over/under 2.5 goal accas

Before I get into the how’s and why’s of this article, I want to point you in the direction of two bookmakers that I use for the vast majority of my over/under 2.5 goals accas.


As you may or may not know, bet365 are my go-to bookmaker for the majority of my football bets. They are pretty much the complete package and I love the range of games and markets that they have on offer.

As you will learn later in the article, the over/under 2.5 goals market doesn’t require a wide base of league or competition knowledge, opening up a huge array of games from around the world.

I’m not going to talk too much more about them other than if you don’t have an account then you can click the link below to register a new account.

William Hill

Quick Tips

  • Look at the last 5 games for each team. How many goals have been scored in each game? If 4/5 of the last 5 games have produced over or under 2.5 goals then it should go in your acca
  • Head to Head Record. Look at how previous matches have played out. Only count recent games though, ideally in the last 12 months
  • Check the team line ups. Are any key players out? Significant changes to the starting XI?
  • Avoid Derby Games. They are so hit and miss and can be a goal fest or a bore draw.
  • Stick to 5 games max in your acca. 4 or 5 bets in your acca is plenty! If you are looking to win regularly then it’s best to not go mad and put 10 games in. Unless you fancy a hero bet one weekend!
  • Ignore the odds. Each match will vary in price but try not to worry if some are on the short side. It’s better to win than chase the bigger returns.

Targeted research

This may be one of the most vague headings ever when it comes to accumulator betting tips, so let me break it down for you a little.

It’s important to know what factors to look for when you are making your initial selections. A regular accumulator bet from the win-draw-win markets will require you to pick the result of the match and highlight which team you think will win or if it will be a draw.

We don’t really care about the result at all for over/under 2.5 goal bets. It’s frighteningly obvious, but all we need is goals!

We’re essentially looking for teams that produce a high number of goals in their games. This can be either goals for or goals against. If we can find a team that provides both, then this is ideal.

A nifty tool I use is the stats section on bet365. If you scroll down a bit it will show the percentage of games that each team has been involved in for that season which have had over or under 2.5 goals.


Any team that tends to include games with over 2.5 goals in around the 55%+ mark I note down. But I’m not just looking to see if this occurs from just one team, instead I’m looking for games where both teams conform to this stat. If they don’t, then I disregard them pretty much on the spot.

As I mentioned earlier, it’s not a case of knowing the matchup of games or how each team is performing results wise. I’m simply looking to see which teams are playing in games that have a high number of goals both for and against.


As a follow up to the targeted research section, I want to draw your attention to detailed statistics. If you search on a bookmakers site or around the internet you can find thousands of games worth of data from teams around the world to show you who will be best suited for these types of bets.

For this example we are going to use a snapshot of the current English Premier League campaign to highlight some key statistics.

The table shows you the number of games in which they are involved in that have over 2.5 goals. As you can see, the majority of teams currently are over the 55% threshold that I mentioned previously. But, this doesn’t mean that these teams can be used for each game.

Let’s take West Ham as our example from this list. They have an over 2.5 goals percentage of 75% so far this season. A fantastic starting point!

However, you can see their next game is against Newcastle with just 41.67% of their games having the same amount of goals. Generally, due to Newcastle’s low percentage, this would be a game I would avoid.

Second on the list is Tottenham, whose percentage is 66.67%. Their next game is against Everton who have exactly the same percentage of their games finishing with over 2.5 goals. This is a much more enticing betting prospect with the likelihood being that the game will finish with over 2.5 goals, resulting in a positive result for us.

You can see that even thought West Ham have a higher percentage than both Tottenham and Everton, because of their opponents lower percentage, it actually makes them less desirable.

Be creative with your selections

A lot of my general accumulator betting strategy comes down to learning leagues and competitions, before then placing bets when you familiarise yourself with certain teams and matchups. This goes out the window somewhat when betting on the over/under 2.5 goals market.

You don’t need to know all the ins and outs of a team for these bets to be successful. In fact, I would say that picking lower profile teams or fixtures that you aren’t as familiar with could be just as profitable.

The table below shows you some of the teams that include the highest percentages of over 2.5 goals per game in the world. Note the countries; South Africa, Spain, Austria, Switzerland, Greece.

For straight up accumulator bets these would be leagues I’d likely avoid, but for these types of bets they are ones I welcome. Some of the numbers are insane with many of them being 75% or over.

These sorts of stats don’t lie for this betting type and it’s something that I’ve adapted into my betting strategy for winning over 2.5 goals accumulators.

Final thoughts

I’ve found these bet types to be much easier to pick winners from than standard accumulators. If you’ve been following my Twitter account then you will see that they have been a lot more prominent over the last few weeks.

Whilst you still need to conduct your research, I’ve found them to be a lot less time consuming and often can roll with the stats on screen. When you compare this to having to pick one team or the other, the simplicity of the bet really comes to the top for me.

You can also apply this sort of strategy when betting on over 3.5, 4.5 or even 1.5 goals in a game. You will need to look a little deeper and the number of teams producing these results will be lower, but they are out there.

Alternatively, if you are looking towards the ‘under’ market then you just need to flip your criteria to match your picks. Search for the teams who don’t score many goals and don’t concede many either.

The bet type opens itself up to be much less time-consuming in terms of research and just as profitable in terms of results.

About Jon

I've made What Acca to try and help people starting out with accumulator betting. The possibilities of these types of bets are pretty much endless, with the major attraction coming from the fact that a lot of money can be won for very little outlay. What Acca will hopefully teach you how to make more profitable accumulator bets whilst also eradicating some of the mistakes that I have made over the years.


  1. Hi Jon just joined the site so let be lucky and show a profit are all the bets advised at £10 if that’s the case that fine is the first bet 8/8/15 when do you send out the email thanks phil

  2. Hi Jon, i stumbled upon your site and i followed your advice and strategy on 2.5over and under, guess what? it worked for me this very night. Well done bro

  3. Hi Jon?have gone through your in depth analysis and and an convinced you are the real deal.looking forward to a rejuvenated betting.have been wasting my money on senseless betting but now you have put some sense in me.looking forward to my first bet after this

  4. Hello Jon i was fortunate to stumble on your site this evening. I hope i win with you. My question is, how often do you send tips? Is it daily or how many times (at least) per week. I hope you will have tips this weekend irrespective of the international break. Keep it up with the good work

    • Hi there,

      Welcome on board! Tips are sent out roughly 3-5 times a week, depending on what games are on. Still send them out for the international games, although admittedly not as frequent. If you are even wondering if you’ve missed an email, download the app to stay up to date as that will include all email tips as well.


  5. Hi Jon, I like your strategy. Just wanted to find out how many games do you put in your over 2.5 acca?

    • Hi Siya

      Just depends what games are on and if the stats line up. I’ve been known to do full over 2.5 acca’s before and other weeks I miss them altogether. On average, usually at least 1 per acca though.


  6. Hi Jon,

    Thanks for your website and the detailed information. I have applied the above method (over 2.5) using the websites you’ve mentioned. I am awaiting the results and will definitely let you know if it worked. I have chosen a variety of teams from different leagues.

    I did notice that use a similar method but they also include teams under 55% in their accumulators. For example Levante (44%) vs Celta De Vigo (77%)

    I have subscribed to your website and hope to win with you from now on.

  7. Hi jon

    Thanks for the great advice. Now all i need to know is what website did you go to for the over 2.5 stats for teama??

  8. Hi JOn, i believe it is about the leagues..some leagues like the holland 1st and second league produces much 0ver 2.5 % ..because the mindset is about attacking while in other leagues like italia is more about defending

    • This is a good point. The dutch leagues, especially 2nd division are great for these bets and I need to add them into the article.


  9. Hello mr Jon.. it means that in order to choose a game that will end up with over 2.5, they must be like 75% and 56% stats of over 2.5 for both teams?

  10. Hello Jon
    I came across your website just now and I like what am seeing and also hearings.for me I only go for under games,I choose under games bcos from the start of the game u are already winning unless the goals exceed 2or3 as the case maybe.i win d I also loose mainly with one game.but I want to be winning with you always.and I only play certain leagues like kazastan, Belarus,Spain div 3,Poland Romania,and many more leagues that scores less goals.

  11. Hi,Jon,good day,you tried so much for the yesterday’s tips ,but unfortunately i did not stake the games due to my financial situation,thanks,pls put more effort.

    Also try and see that the tips arrived early.

    Best Regards.

  12. Good work Jon, a lot of wins.

  13. jon, God bless you…i promise to support your group by donating money when i win big

  14. Hi job, do you still send bet tips this 2020?
    If yes, then I’ll really am interested, good luck shine on you Jon?

    • Hi Mann, yes I’ll be carrying on once sport is back to normal service. I’m just enjoying a little down time now but I’ll be very ready once we are back in action!

  15. Hello jon I need your tips of over 2.5 goals please help me with them

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