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Matthew Glazier
Betting Expert

21 July 2024

How to win over/under 2.5 goals accumulator bet

The Over/Under 2.5 Goals bet is a pretty simple concept when it comes to football betting. You’re either betting on Over 2.5 Goals where you want three goals or more to be scored, or you’re backing Under 2.5 Goals where you need no more than two goals during the match in question.

Over 2.5 Goals Tip – 21/07/24

Norway U19 v Northern Ireland U19, KO:19:00
Ukraine U19 v Italy U19, KO:19:00
Bahia v Corinthians, KO:20:00

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    The thing I love about an Over/Under 2.5 Goals bet is that you don’t have to be bothered about which team wins the football match. You don’t even need to worry about which team does or doesn’t score the goals. The pure focus is the total number of goals that the two sides score between them.

    Over 2.5 Goals Strategy

    I’ve created this article to give you the ultimate betting guide when it comes to betting on the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market. I’ll reveal some trade secrets that are going to maximise your chance of winning when you put together an Over/Under 2.5 Goals accumulator bet on a regular basis.

    While there’s nothing wrong with putting together a football accumulator featuring teams to win their respective matches, I firmly recommend looking at the Over/Under Goals betting market when it comes to the majority of your accas.

    For starters, the Full-Time Result market is a three-way market, whereas Over/Under Goals is a two-way market as there is no draw involved. That immediately strengthens our chances of winning with an accumulator that focuses purely on the goals being scored.

    This is why I will regularly include this market and give my subscribers over under 2.5 goals system tips.

    Should I Bet Over or Under 2.5 Goals on Football Matches?

    You can choose a football betting accumulator with selections that are all Over 2.5 Goals. Conversely, you could bet an acca where you’re looking for low-scoring games and that would mean plumping for Under 2.5 Goals. You could even choose the middle road and have a combination which makes sense as you go through the coupon. It is always worth adding that you should review other football betting sites and review what is on offer.

    With my accumulator betting tips for this market, I tend to go for Over 2.5 Goals the vast majority of the time. This is partly down to personal preference and also because I can use my stats-based approach more effectively with this bet. However, the strategy can also be used to bet on games with Under 2.5 Goals.

    Best Bookies for Over/Under 2.5 Goal Accumulators

    There are two bookmakers who I would recommend when it comes to betting Over 2.5 Goals accumulators or Under 2.5 Goals accumulators. It’s important to find a bookie who will provide competitive odds along with the chance to land regular bonuses when it comes to this type of football bet.


    Honestly speaking, if you don’t have a bet365 account, then you’re going to miss out when it comes to betting on the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market. These guys are the world leaders when it comes to football betting and they are unrivalled when it comes to the number of leagues and competitions that are covered all over the world. Stay up to date with the sports betting blog!

    I would say 80% of my accas are placed with bet365 and the good news for new customers is that you can click on the below link and enjoy a welcome bonus to get you started. In addition, you will find competitive odds available for Over/Under 2.5 Goals and they sometimes also add a cheeky accumulator bonus on top of your winnings.

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      Betfred are another fantastic bookie for football betting and they’re also known as “The Bonus King” due to the fact that they will add bonuses to certain multiple bets such as accumulators. There are different football coupons worth checking out and the odds are always competitive.

      Click on the below link to sign up with Betfred and you can enjoy a lovely free bet to get you started. Naturally, this free bet can be used for an Over 2.5 Goals accumulator and it’s great to have a risk-free wager where you pick out the matches where there are going to be Over 2.5 Goals or Under 2.5 Goals.

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        Quick Tips for Over/Under 2.5 Goals Accumulator Betting

        1. Look at the League Table

        How many goals have been scored and conceded by each team? How does that work out when you divide these totals by the number of games played? The league table for a particular football division is always a good starting point and it’s especially useful if you can split out the goals scored by a team at home compared to their away matches.

        2. Study the Last Five Games for Each Team

        The league table might be useful, although we like to consider more recent form as it’s often the case that a team will have a different approach at various parts of the season. Has a team been scoring or conceding a lot of goals recently? If yes, that means there’s a strong case for including them in an Over 2.5 Goals accumulator bet.

        3. Look at a Team’s Expected Goals (XG) for Past Few Matches

        Expected goals is a fantastic way of understanding how a team performed in their previous few matches. If you can get hold of XG information, you might realise that a team scored twice in their last game although their XG was closer to four based on the number of excellent chances that they had. Sometimes goals don’t always tell the full story when it comes to discovering teams who will score a lot in their next game.

        4. Check out Head to Head Record and Team News

        Head to Head is a good one providing some of the matches have been played recently. You can see whether the two teams either cancel each other out or end up trading blows and running in the goals. Also pay attention to team news to see if key strikers or defenders are missing as this can either increase or decrease the possibility of Over 2.5 Goals.

        5. Try and Stick to Five Matches in Your Accumulator

        For every football match, there are two possible outcomes. Either Over 2.5 Goals or Under 2.5 Goals. Therefore, a winning accumulator needs to be right every time and a football acca with ten selections has a slim chance of profiting compared to just five. It’s better to stick to the games where you have a strong opinion compared to the ones where you’re just trying to bulk up the odds of your acca.

        6. Don’t Be Put Off by Short Odds

        There’s a big difference between backing odds of 1.50 as a single and including this price in your Over 2.5 Goals football accumulator. Don’t be afraid to go for the short odds selections as they still create a juicy accumulator price when you combine the picks together. An acca is a perfect opportunity to back the favourites without needing to risk a big stake in order to get a decent return.

        How to Find Football Matches With Over 2.5 Goals

        Naturally, there is no guarantee that a football match will result in three goals or more. However, we’re looking for games where there’s a high probability that the net will bulge at least three times. Even better if those three goals are scored nice and early so we can tick that one off as a winner nice and quickly!

        Remember, all we’re looking for here is a match where three or more goals will be scored. They could all be scored by the same team or shared out. The outcome of the match is also unimportant so we can get excited when each of the teams are on the attack and looking to carve out the latest scoring chance.

        We’re essentially looking for teams that produce a high number of goals in their games. This can be either goals for or goals against. If we can find a team that provides both, then this is ideal. A nifty tool I use is the stats section on bet365. See the below example for some helpful stats when it comes to a game between Man City and Arsenal.

        over2.5 goals stats

        You can see that Manchester City have a very healthy percentage of games where Over 2.5 Goals have been scored, while over 50% of Arsenal’s matches have also seen three or more goals. This would mark this game out a prime selection for our Over 2.5 Goals accumulator.

        Any team who has at least 55% of games featuring Over 2.5 Goals is one for the shortlist, although you would ideally find their opponents are also hitting this kind of figure. The bet365 stats section also allows you to compare home and away figures so it makes sense to check out the home team’s percentage for home games and the away team’s percentage for away games.

        How to Use Stats to Make Winning Over 2.5 Goals Bets

        In my opinion, it’s absolutely vital to take a stats-based approach when it comes to betting accumulators featuring Over 2.5 Goals or Under 2.5 Goals. Without the statistics to hand, you’re betting in the dark and stand less chance of making an overall profit.

        There are many websites which will provide free football data and several of the bookmaker sites actually provide some valuable information despite not wanting customers to gain an edge over them. Here is a snapshot of the 2019/20 Premier League football season with just a handful of games remaining:

        over under 2.5 goals premier league

        As you can see, Manchester City and Aston Villa’s matches have a very healthy 71.43% hit rate when it comes to betting on Over 2.5 Goals and it goes to show that you should look at the teams who are defensively bad as well as the clubs who are scoring the most goals.

        Liverpool and Tottenham fixtures would also be interesting if we’re putting together an Over 2.5 Goals betting accumulator, while Leicester, Chelsea, Bournemouth and Southampton are also above the 60% benchmark which would also be encouraging if they’re in action.

        However, it also depends on a team’s opponents and you can see that Sheffield United matches have been yielding Over 2.5 Goals just 21.43% of the time, with the Blades clearly having a game plan which involves having a stubborn defence and edging games by a solitary goals.

        The same applies to Crystal Palace and these are the sort of teams where it could be worth throwing in an Under 2.5 Goals selection if they’re playing opponents who are also not renowned for finding the net. We would be wary of an “Overs” bet involving these teams along with Manchester United, Newcastle and Brighton based on their low-scoring games over time.

        How to Cash Out Your Over 2.5 Goals Accumulator Bet

        This is a big one. If you’re putting together an accumulator with five Over/Under 2.5 Goals selections, then it’s likely you will have an opportunity to Cash Out your bet before the final whistle has blown in each game. Sometimes the matches will be staggered so you can win with your first couple of selections and work out whether to Cash Out or let the bet run.

        Every accumulator betting tip that I put together is designed to win. There is plenty of research that goes into each selection and I would always trust in the selections. However, I realise that Cash Out can be an excellent way of either making an early profit or potentially cutting your losses if the goals aren’t flowing in a particular match.

        When you have placed your football accumulator, you will see a Cash Out value and that goes up or down according to how your bet is faring. You can Cash Out if one or more of the games are In-Play or alternatively do it between the matches being played.

        Select Teams From Different Leagues For Your Acca

        If you’re betting an accumulator focusing on the Full-Time Result betting market, then you generally have to know plenty about the teams who are involved. However, the Over/Under 2.5 Goals focuses more heavily on getting hold of the latest stats and working out how you can profit from football leagues that are played all over the world.

        You don’t need to know all the ins and outs of a team for these bets to be successful. In fact, I would say that picking lower profile teams or unfamiliar fixtures could be just as profitable.

        Check out the below stats for the 2019/20 Dutch Eredivisie season. You might be familiar with teams such as Ajax and Eindhoven, although look at how many teams have had matches where the Over 2.5 Goals selection has been over 50%:

        over 2.5 goals erdivisie

        For straight up accumulator bets, this would be a league that I’d likely avoid considering a lack of general knowledge when it comes to Dutch football. However, I’m all in when it comes to an Over 2.5 Goals considering that twelve of the eighteen teams post figures of 60% or bigger.

        Consider Over/Under Bets for 1.5 Goals and 3.5 Goals Too

        My record speaks for itself. I have found a way to win often on Over/Under 2.5 Goals accumulator bets and it doesn’t involve a whole heap of detailed research. Yes, you need to do your homework although this largely centres on the average number of goals that have been scored during a team’s football match.

        Whilst you still need to conduct your research, I’ve found this to be a lot less time consuming and often can roll with the stats on screen. When you compare this to having to pick one team or the other, the simplicity of the bet really comes to the top for me.

        You can also apply this sort of strategy when betting on Over/Under 1.5 Goals or Over/Under 3.5 Goals. In the case of the former, we would recommend this betting market when the bookies are expecting the game to be low-scoring and there isn’t a lot of juice when it comes to the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market.

        Similarly, we would say Over/Under 3.5 Goals is the way forward if you have a match where two high-scoring teams are clashing swords. You can then work out whether there will be four or more goals in the game, while if you’re looking towards the ‘under’ market then you just need to flip your criteria to match your picks. Search for the teams who don’t score many goals and don’t concede many either.

        Final Thoughts

        This is one accumulator strategies that I would recommend to anyone. The principles of finding matches that cater for over and under 2.5 goals is the same whichever league. As long as you can research the main statistics you can put together a great over / under 2.5 goal acca.

        Feel free to leave a comment if you need help with anything and best of luck with your betting.

        Matthew Glazier

        Betting Expert
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        Matthew Glazier is one of the biggest names in the sports betting industry, with this leading writer having twenty years experience which includes working for bet365, William Hill and betfair.