The over/under 2.5 goals bet is a pretty simple concept. If you are betting on the over then you are looking for 3 or more goals to be scored in the game. Conversely, if you are betting on the under then you are looking for two or less goals in the game.
The beauty of these types of bets is that the result of the match doesn’t matter, so even if the favourite doesn’t win, it doesn’t matter, as long as goals are being scored; and this is all we care about.
This article will show you exactly how I go about making my selections for winning accumulator bets for games that include the over/under 2.5 goals.
I’ll be honest in saying that 95% of my accas will include over 2.5 goals selections, but if you are looking for under bets, then the strategy can still very successfully be applied.
Best bookmakers for over/under 2.5 goal accas
Before I get into the how’s and why’s of this article, I want to point you in the direction of two bookmakers that I use for the vast majority of my over/under 2.5 goals accas.
As you may or may not know, bet365 are my go-to bookmaker for the majority of my football bets. They are pretty much the complete package and I love the range of games and markets that they have on offer.
As you will learn later in the article, the over/under 2.5 goals market doesn’t require a wide base of league or competition knowledge, opening up a huge array of games from around the world.
I’m not going to talk too much more about them other than if you don’t have an account then you can click the link below to register a new account.
- Look at the last 5 games for each team. How many goals have been scored in each game? If 4/5 of the last 5 games have produced over or under 2.5 goals then it should go in your acca
- Head to Head Record. Look at how previous matches have played out. Only count recent games though, ideally in the last 12 months
- Check the team line ups. Are any key players out? Significant changes to the starting XI?
- Avoid Derby Games. They are so hit and miss and can be a goal fest or a bore draw.
- Stick to 5 games max in your acca. 4 or 5 bets in your acca is plenty! If you are looking to win regularly then it’s best to not go mad and put 10 games in. Unless you fancy a hero bet one weekend!
- Ignore the odds. Each match will vary in place but try not to worry if some are on the short side. It’s better to win than chase the bigger returns.
This may be one of the most vague headings ever when it comes to accumulator betting tips, so let me break it down for you a little.
It’s important to know what factors to look for when you are making your initial selections. A regular accumulator bet from the win-draw-win markets will require you to pick the result of the match and highlight which team you think will win or if it will be a draw.
We don’t really care about the result at all for over/under 2.5 goal bets. It’s frighteningly obvious, but all we need is goals!
We’re essentially looking for teams that produce a high number of goals in their games. This can be either goals for or goals against. If we can find a team that provides both, then this is ideal.
A nifty tool I use is the stats section on bet365. If you scroll down a bit it will show the percentage of games that each team has been involved in for that season which have had over or under 2.5 goals.
Any team that tends to include games with over 2.5 goals in around the 55%+ mark I note down. But I’m not just looking to see if this occurs from just one team, instead I’m looking for games where both teams conform to this stat. If they don’t, then I disregard them pretty much on the spot.
As I mentioned earlier, it’s not a case of knowing the matchup of games or how each team is performing results wise. I’m simply looking to see which teams are playing in games that have a high number of goals both for and against.
As a follow up to the targeted research section, I want to draw your attention to detailed statistics. If you search on a bookmakers site or around the internet you can find thousands of games worth of data from teams around the world to show you who will be best suited for these types of bets.
For this example we are going to use a snapshot of the current English Premier League campaign to highlight some key statistics.
The table shows you the number of games in which they are involved in that have over 2.5 goals. As you can see, the majority of teams currently are over the 55% threshold that I mentioned previously. But, this doesn’t mean that these teams can be used for each game.
Let’s take West Ham as our example from this list. They have an over 2.5 goals percentage of 75% so far this season. A fantastic starting point!
However, you can see their next game is against Newcastle with just 41.67% of their games having the same amount of goals. Generally, due to Newcastle’s low percentage, this would be a game I would avoid.
Second on the list is Tottenham, whose percentage is 66.67%. Their next game is against Everton who have exactly the same percentage of their games finishing with over 2.5 goals. This is a much more enticing betting prospect with the likelihood being that the game will finish with over 2.5 goals, resulting in a positive result for us.
You can see that even thought West Ham have a higher percentage than both Tottenham and Everton, because of their opponents lower percentage, it actually makes them less desirable.
Be creative with your selections
A lot of my general accumulator betting strategy comes down to learning leagues and competitions, before then placing bets when you familiarise yourself with certain teams and matchups. This goes out the window somewhat when betting on the over/under 2.5 goals market.
You don’t need to know all the ins and outs of a team for these bets to be successful. In fact, I would say that picking lower profile teams or fixtures that you aren’t as familiar with could be just as profitable.
The table below shows you some of the teams that include the highest percentages of over 2.5 goals per game in the world. Note the countries; South Africa, Spain, Austria, Switzerland, Greece.
For straight up accumulator bets these would be leagues I’d likely avoid, but for these types of bets they are ones I welcome. Some of the numbers are insane with many of them being 75% or over.
These sorts of stats don’t lie for this betting type and it’s something that I’ve adapted into my betting strategy for winning over 2.5 goals accumulators.
I’ve found these bet types to be much easier to pick winners from than standard accumulators. If you’ve been following my Twitter account then you will see that they have been a lot more prominent over the last few weeks.
Whilst you still need to conduct your research, I’ve found them to be a lot less time consuming and often can roll with the stats on screen. When you compare this to having to pick one team or the other, the simplicity of the bet really comes to the top for me.
You can also apply this sort of strategy when betting on over 3.5, 4.5 or even 1.5 goals in a game. You will need to look a little deeper and the number of teams producing these results will be lower, but they are out there.
Alternatively, if you are looking towards the ‘under’ market then you just need to flip your criteria to match your picks. Search for the teams who don’t score many goals and don’t concede many either.
The bet type opens itself up to be much less time-consuming in terms of research and just as profitable in terms of results.