England are 6/1 to win the 2026 World Cup. The bookies make them third-favourites behind Spain and France. The Three Lions haven’t won a major tournament since 1966 although these odds suggest they are roughly 15% likely to be crowned champions in North America this summer. There are reasons to be optimistic. England breezed through qualifying after winning all their games and not conceding a goal. The Three Lions have also started to get close to a modern-day tournament victory. They navigate their way through to the semi-final stage of the World Cup in 2018 and then reached the final of the delayed Euro 2020. At the 2022 World Cup, Gareth Southgate’s side made the last eight of the competition before a defeat to France. Two years ago, there was a Euro 2024 final appearance against Spain. England have some world-class players to depend upon. Jordan Pickford, Marc Guehi, Declan Rice, Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane provide an excellent spine to the team. There’s also Bukayo Saka, Elliott Anderson, Morgan Rogers and Ezri Konsa to help the team reach the business end of the competition. Thomas Tuchel is the expensively-hired hand briefed with being successful. The German has previously won the Champions League with Chelsea and is someone with vast experience of cup competitions, although he has little in the way of an international management track record. Reasons Why England Probably Won’t Win the World Cup The betting market has them as the third most likely team to win the 2026 World Cup. However, the betting odds also imply that 15% probability. Which makes them 85% likely to not win the tournament. Simple maths alone dictates that a quarter-final or semi-final exit is far more likely than a victory. Are England actually any good right now? The March friendlies would suggest that the jury is out. A 1-1 draw against Uruguay at Wembley saw Ben White’s late goal cancelled out by a late penalty. Worse was to follow days later when Kaoru Mitoma’s goal enabled Japan to claim a 1-0 victory at the national stadium. The Three Lions left the pitch to a chorus of boos. Doubtless that confidence will be restored from clashes against New Zealand and Costa Rica, although we hark back to last June’s match against Senegal at the City Ground where the African side came away with a 3-1 victory. Since then, England have largely faced dross and it’s hard to gauge how they’ll fare against serious opposition. Do England Have a Squad Good Enough to Win? Harry Kane might be doing some heavy lifting this summer. The Bayern Munich striker is the only forward in the squad with a prolific strike rate for England. The captain has 78 goals in 112 appearances, with Marcus Rashford returning to the international fray and the Barcelona man has eighteen in seventy appearances. Ollie Watkins is Kane’s understudy and has a modest six goals from twenty caps, with Bukayo Saka averaging one goal in every 3.5 England games. One wonders if there’s enough firepower in the ranks compared to some of the other nations. England Could Be Defensively Vulnerable Marc Guehi and Ezri Konsa form a relatively untested central defence partnership for England. Guehi has been a standout performer for Crystal Palace and Manchester City in the past twelve months although he only has 27 caps for his country. Konsa has just 18 and this lack of experience is not hugely encouraging ahead of a World Cup. John Stones is waiting in the wings but has barely featured for Manchester City over the past few months. His club team-mate Nico O’Reilly is something special but the 21-year-old is new to major tournaments and it’s asking a lot for him to shine on the biggest stage of all. When Will England Exit the World Cup? It’s hard to predict how the draw is definitely going to pan out and you would expect England to make the knockout stage of the World Cup as group winners. Their last-32 opponent is likely to be modest although there could then be a last-16 clash against Mexico at altitude which looks like a banana skin. If Tuchel’s men progress to the last eight of the competition, Brazil are waiting in the wings and that effectively could bring their participation to an abrupt end.
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