Every Premier League season throws up a few surprise packages. Some clubs exceed expectations, while others struggle despite huge investment. That’s exactly why one of our favourite long-term betting markets is the Premier League Season Handicap Winner. Available at bet365, this market gives every club a points head start before a ball has even been kicked. Instead of simply backing who will finish top of the real Premier League table, you’re betting on who will finish top once their allocated handicap points have been added to their final total. It completely changes the betting landscape. Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal are expected to challenge for the title every season, so they receive very few (or sometimes even negative) handicap points. Meanwhile, clubs expected to finish in mid-table or lower receive a generous head start, meaning a strong campaign could see them top the handicap table even if they finish seventh or eighth in the actual league. It’s one of the most interesting outright markets available before the season begins. How Does The Premier League Season Handicap Market Work? The concept is incredibly simple. Each club is allocated a handicap before the opening weekend. For example: Aston Villa: +18 Crystal Palace: +31 At the end of the season, those handicap points are added to each team’s actual Premier League points total. Whoever finishes with the highest adjusted total wins the market. Example If Aston Villa finish the season with 72 points: 72 + 18 = 90 handicap points If Manchester City finish with 88 points but receive no handicap advantage, Villa would finish above them in the handicap standings. This is what makes the market so fascinating. You’re not trying to predict the league champions. You’re trying to identify the team most likely to outperform expectations. Why We Love This Market Unlike the outright title market, you’re looking for value rather than simply backing the strongest squad. The best handicap bets often share similar characteristics: Teams likely to improve significantly Clubs making smart summer signings New managers bringing fresh ideas Young squads with room for development Teams that underperformed last season Our Pick #1 – Aston Villa (+18) Our favourite selection for the 2026/27 Season Handicap market is Aston Villa. Villa have quietly become one of the Premier League’s strongest projects over recent seasons. They’ve built an exciting squad packed with attacking quality while continuing to strengthen in key areas during the summer. Perhaps more importantly, they’ve developed a winning mentality. Villa are no longer viewed as outsiders hoping to challenge the top six. They now expect to compete with Europe’s best teams. An additional 18-point head start feels generous if they can put together another campaign in the 70-point range. Why We Like Aston Villa Strong, settled squad Excellent manager Smart recruitment European experience Plenty of goals throughout the team If Villa can finish inside the Premier League’s top five, they should be right in contention for this market. Our Pick #2 – Crystal Palace (+31) Crystal Palace look like outstanding value. Receiving a massive 31-point head start immediately puts them in the conversation. The Eagles have quietly become one of the league’s most exciting sides. Their attacking football improved dramatically last season and they now possess genuine quality throughout the squad. If they can build on that momentum and push towards the top half of the table, those additional 31 points become incredibly valuable. Palace don’t need to qualify for the Champions League to challenge in this market. A solid season finishing around eighth or ninth could be enough. Why We Like Crystal Palace Huge 31-point head start Exciting attacking players Positive style of football Strong momentum Plenty of room to exceed expectations At odds of 18/1 (correct at time of publish 30-07-2026), Palace represent one of our favourite value selections before the season gets underway. Teams That Could Surprise This Season Every Premier League campaign produces one or two clubs that outperform expectations. These are the teams we’re keeping a close eye on. Aston Villa Already one of our selections, Villa have the squad depth and quality to challenge near the top of the table. Crystal Palace An exciting young squad combined with an ambitious style of play makes Palace one of the most interesting teams this season. Brighton Brighton continue to recruit exceptionally well. They consistently identify talented players before bigger clubs and have repeatedly shown they can compete with teams spending far more money. Bournemouth Another club that continues to improve year after year. If they can remain defensively solid while adding more goals, they could once again surprise people. Sunderland Second season back in the Premier League, Sunderland arrive with momentum and huge support from a very strong season back in the top league. If they can replicate what they did last year, they go very close. Why Summer Transfers Matter One reason we prefer waiting until the transfer window is nearing completion before placing season-long bets is that signings can completely change a team’s outlook. One prolific striker, One commanding centre-back, One experienced goalkeeper. Those additions can easily be worth several league positions over the course of a season. Likewise, a managerial appointment can transform a club’s fortunes almost overnight. The handicap market rewards improvement more than reputation, making it one of the most interesting long-term bets available. Things To Consider Before Betting Before placing your bet, ask yourself: Does the team have enough goals? Have they strengthened during the summer? Is the manager entering their second season? Can they avoid a long injury list? Are the handicap points generous enough? Finding the right balance between quality and handicap is the key to this market. Our Final Verdict The Premier League Season Handicap Winner market is one of the most underrated outright bets available before the season begins. Rather than simply backing the obvious title favourites, it rewards identifying the club that can exceed expectations over 38 matches. Our two standout selections for the 2026/27 season are: 🥇 Aston Villa +18 @ 18/1 🥈 Crystal Palace +31 @ 18/1 Odds correct at time of publish 30-07-2026 Both clubs have settled squads, ambitious projects and realistic opportunities to outperform their pre-season expectations. As always, keep an eye on any late transfer activity before placing your bets, but at the current prices these are the two teams we believe offer the best value in the market. If you’re looking for a long-term Premier League bet that offers something different from the usual title or top-four markets, the Season Handicap Winner market is definitely worth considering.
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